Bitcoin Price Analysis: Critical Levels and Market Outlook
On November 25, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) dropped below $95,000, breaking out of an ascending broadening wedge pattern. While it found support at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), resistance from the 50-day EMA and the $95,000 mark could hinder its recovery toward the $99,000 range highs.
As altcoins show quicker recovery, analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will face further declines or make a move toward $100,000.
Divergent Analyst Perspectives on Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Short-Term Decline or Long-Term Growth?
Despite Bitcoin’s recent 5% dip over the past two days, independent analyst Javon Marks believes the decline is temporary. He suggests that historical trends indicate Bitcoin could still reach $113,386, representing a potential 20.7% rise from its current range.
In-Chain Metrics Signal Optimism
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. holds a bullish view, citing the “value days destroyed” (VDD) metric, which remains below 2. This indicates that long-term holders are retaining their positions. A VDD value exceeding 2.9 typically signifies heightened selling activity, often marking the end of bullish cycles.
Potential for Bearish Outcomes
Other analysts hold a more cautious outlook. Ran Neuner, founder of Crypto Banter, predicts a potential drop to close the CME gap at $77,800. If Bitcoin breaks below its current range, it could fall further to $73,000 in the next 21 days. Similarly, the anonymous analyst Cryptotoad points to the current impulse wave structure as a sign of possible further declines.
Key Retest Levels and Volume Analysis
Horse, a commodities and index trader, highlights a retest zone between $88,500 and $82,000. Using auction market theory and volume profile data, he anticipates Bitcoin could bounce from this range over the coming month.
Historical Patterns: Thanksgiving and Beyond
Historically, Thanksgiving has often seen Bitcoin corrections, followed by rebounds in December. In November 2020, Bitcoin corrected near the month’s end after peaking at $19,633 but broke past $20,000 shortly after, reaching new highs in early 2021.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, notes that Wednesdays tend to be bullish for Bitcoin. However, Thanksgiving itself has historically seen price drops between 2019 and 2023.
Key Technical Levels to Monitor
Bitcoin’s immediate outlook depends on key technical milestones:
- Bullish Confirmation: A daily close above $95,000 could signal upward momentum.
- Downside Risks: Failing to reclaim the 50-day EMA may push Bitcoin toward liquidity zones around $90,000.
- Support Zone: A bounce between $88,500 and $82,000 remains a plausible outcome, based on volume profiles.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains optimistic, but short-term volatility continues to dominate. Analysts are split between bullish targets such as $113,386 and potential declines to below $90,000. Monitoring key support and resistance levels, alongside market sentiment and macroeconomic trends, will be essential for traders navigating this uncertainty.